# ScopeDOPE — Price Point Analysis

**Prepared by:** Cold Bore Ballistics LLC
**Date:** 2026-06-01
**Status:** Internal Strategy — Confidential
**Source basis:** All OneDrive `.md` files + current market research (2024–2026)

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## The Short Answer

**Launch at $29.99. Move to $44.99 as the permanent price after 60–90 days.**

The current SPEC §19 plan ($24.99 launch / $39.99 primary) is defensible but leaves money on the table. The demographic, competitive gap, and market data all support a higher price. The reasoning follows.

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## 1. The Competitive Pricing Map

| Product | Model | Price | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| **Hornady 4DOF** | One-time | $4.99 | No DOPE management, no printing |
| **iSnipe** | One-time | \~15 | Basic ballistics only |
| **Shooter App** | One-time | \~19.99 | iOS only; no DOPE, no printing |
| **KAC Bullet Flight (pro)** | One-time | $29.99 | Professional tier; limited features vs. ScopeDOPE |
| **AB Quantum Elite** | Annual sub | $19.99/yr | Freemium + sub; free Ultralite tier; free w/ AB Elite device |
| **Kestrel 5700 Elite** | Hardware | \~$700 (street ~$632) | The standard; no printing |
| **ScopeDOPE (current plan)** | One-time | $24.99 → $39.99 | — |
| **ScopeDOPE (recommended)** | One-time | $29.99 → $44.99 | — |

**The gap above $29.99 one-time is completely unoccupied.** No competing ballistic app charges more than $29.99 for a one-time purchase. ScopeDOPE — which does materially more than any of them — has room to own that space without being compared unfavorably to anything.

AB Mobile's December 2024 price cut to $19.99/year + freemium is also relevant: the dominant subscription player is moving *down*, not up. One-time at $44.99 is not competing with $19.99/year — it's in a different category entirely.

---

## 2. What This Demographic Actually Spends

From SCOPEDOPE_MARKETING_GUIDE.md §2.3 and §2.8:

| Reference point | Cost |
|---|---|
| Entry NRL22 rifle (Ruger Precision Rimfire) | $500 |
| Mid-tier competitive NRL22 rifle | $1,500–$3,000 |
| PRS competition setup (rifle + scope) | $8,000–$15,000 |
| Kestrel 5700 Elite | ~$700 |
| WeatherFlow Tactical (recommended sensor) | $99.95 |
| Match entry fee (NRL22) | $25–$50/match |
| Match ammo (.22LR match grade, per round) | $0.10–$0.25 |
| PRS centerfire match ammo (per round) | $1.00–$3.00 |

The Marketing Guide §2.3 states directly: *"For this buyer, ScopeDOPE at $39.99 is not a purchasing decision. It is a rounding error."* This applies equally to $44.99. The price ceiling for this demographic is not driven by affordability — it is driven by perceived quality signal. **A price that is too low raises suspicion** (Marketing Guide §2.1).

At $29.99 a shooter burns through that in 150–300 rounds of PRS ammo. At $44.99, they burn through it in 22–45 rounds of centerfire match ammo — about one stage at a serious PRS match. This is not a price-sensitive purchase.

---

## 3. Price Tier Psychology

Research on app store pricing shows three meaningful psychological cliffs in the relevant range:

| Transition | Effect |
|---|---|
| $19.99 → $29.99 | Meaningful — crosses from "standard app" to "premium app" |
| $29.99 → $39.99 | Noticeable — "serious tool" territory |
| $39.99 → $49.99 | Real cliff — "professional software" perception begins |
| $44.99 vs. $49.99 | Negligible — both anchor in the "40s"; conversion rates are statistically similar |

**$44.99 is the optimal primary price** because:
- It clears the $39.99→$49.99 cliff without crossing it
- It sits comfortably in "precision tool" territory without triggering "expensive app" resistance
- It is only $5 more than the current plan, but signals meaningfully more premium than $39.99
- The revenue impact is material: per SCOPEDOPE_REVENUE_PROJECTION.md, each $5 increase at 2,000 installs adds approximately **$7,700–$8,300 net revenue** (corrected blended in-app fee band, 15.0%–21.5%) — for a change no user in this demographic will blink at

**$49.99 is not recommended at launch** — it crosses the psychological cliff before the product has community proof. It may be viable as a future price increase after reviews and community traction are established.

---

## 4. Launch Price Strategy

### 4.1 Why $29.99 Instead of $24.99

The current plan launches at $24.99. The case for raising it to $29.99:

- **$24.99 sits $5 above the Shooter App ($19.99)**, the closest one-time purchase competitor. That margin is thin for a product with far greater capabilities. It risks being perceived as "slightly better than Shooter" rather than "a different category."
- **$29.99 matches KAC Bullet Flight's professional tier** — the highest-priced existing one-time ballistics app. It establishes ScopeDOPE as a peer of the most expensive one-time option, before demonstrating it is materially better.
- This demographic is not deterred by $5. The $24.99 vs. $29.99 decision will not change a single conversion from this community. It will change perception.

### 4.2 What the Launch Discount Is For

A launch price serves two purposes:
1. **Install velocity** — early installs drive App Store ranking and search placement
2. **Review seeding** — early adopters who paid less are more forgiving; initial reviews shape perception

Both goals are served by $29.99 just as well as $24.99. The marginal benefit of the extra $5 discount is not worth the quality signal cost.

### 4.3 Duration and Communication

**60–90 days or the first 500 installs — whichever comes first.**

The launch discount must be communicated as explicitly introductory in all marketing:

> *"Introductory price: $29.99 — normalizing to $44.99 after launch."*

This eliminates community backlash when the price rises and creates urgency to buy during the launch window. Existing purchasers are grandfathered — they own it permanently at the price they paid. Post-launch price increases on a one-time purchase product are broadly accepted when framed this way; the backlash pattern (Canva, Netflix) is specific to subscription increases.

---

## 5. Revenue Impact

From SCOPEDOPE_REVENUE_PROJECTION.md, at 2,000 installs (Solid scenario), all-primary-price basis. Net is shown as a band using the **corrected blended in-app fee of 15.0%–21.5%** (15% Apps Experience → 21.5% standard Google; see §1.1 of the Revenue Projection), net of 2% refunds:

| Price | Year 1 gross | Net @15% (Apps Exp) | Net @21.5% (std) | vs. $39.99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $39.99 (prior primary plan) | $79,980 | $66,623 | $61,529 | Baseline |
| **$44.99 (decided primary)** | **$89,980** | **$74,953** | **$69,222** | **+~$7.7K–$8.3K** |
| $49.99 (future option) | $99,980 | $83,283 | $76,915 | +~$15.4K–$16.7K |

The difference between the prior $39.99 primary and the decided $44.99 primary is **~$7,700–$8,330 net at 2,000 installs** (the spread reflects the fee band) — for a $5 increase that the target demographic will not notice.

> **Fee correction (2026-06-09):** an earlier version used a flat "85% store" (15%) net and stated the $44.99-vs-$39.99 delta as $8,401. The corrected blended in-app fee is a 15.0%–21.5% band, so the delta is ~$7,693 (standard Google) to ~$8,330 (Apps Experience). The pricing *conclusion* is unchanged — the demographic is insensitive to a $5 move and the one-time premium tier is unoccupied. At the ~June 30 2026 launch the 15% Apps Experience tier is not yet available (US rollout ~Sept 30 2026), so the launch-period figure is the lower (21.5%) end.

Over the Solid scenario 3-year horizon (declining new installs), the cumulative difference between $39.99 and $44.99 primary pricing is on the order of **$18,000–$25,000 in additional net revenue** (fee-band dependent) with no change to the product, the marketing, or conversion rates in this demographic.

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## 6. The System Price Check

From SCOPEDOPE_MARKETING_GUIDE.md §6.1, the complete ScopeDOPE system:

| Component | Cost |
|---|---|
| ScopeDOPE (recommended) | $44.99 |
| Niimbot B21 Pro printer | \~$80 |
| WeatherFlow Tactical sensor | \~$99.95 |
| **Complete system** | **\~$225** |

vs. Kestrel 5700 Elite at ~$700 with no printing capability.

The marketing line holds even more strongly at $44.99: *"A complete ScopeDOPE system — Ballistic Computer, live weather, printed labels — runs around $225. The Kestrel 5700 Elite is ~$700 and can't print anything."* The corrected Kestrel price (~$700, up from the earlier $560 figure) *widens* the system-vs-Kestrel gap in ScopeDOPE's favor.

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## 7. Recommendation

| Decision | Price | Timing |
|---|---|---|
| **Launch (introductory)** | **$29.99** | Day 1 through day 60–90 or first 500 installs |
| **Primary (permanent)** | **$44.99** | After launch window closes; all future sales |
| Future increase (optional) | $49.99 | After strong community proof; 12+ months post-launch |

**Communicate the introductory price explicitly from day one.** Every app store description, social post, and community mention during launch should state the price will normalize to $44.99. This creates urgency, eliminates post-launch backlash, and pre-frames $44.99 as the "real" price — which improves perceived value of the launch discount.

**Do not use $39.99 as the primary price.** The Revenue Projection already flagged it as potentially below market tolerance. The competitive landscape confirms the one-time premium tier is unoccupied. The demographic won't notice the $5 difference. There is no reason to leave ~$7,700–$8,300 per 2,000 installs on the table.

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*Confidential — Cold Bore Ballistics LLC — Do not distribute without NDA*

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## Document Control

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| **Document owner** | `jschwefel@coldboreballisticsllc.com` |
| **Classification** | Confidential (03_-_Confidential/) |
| **Location** | `OneDrive/CBB_Corporate/03_-_Confidential/Financial_Records/SCOPEDOPE_PRICE_POINT_ANALYSIS.md` |
| **Cross-references** | `SCOPEDOPE_REVENUE_PROJECTION.md`; `SCOPEDOPE_MARKETING_GUIDE.md` |
| **Created** | 2026-06-05 |
| **Last updated** | 2026-06-05 |
| **Next full review due** | 2027-06-05 |

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## Revision Control Block

| Rev | Date | Changed By | Reviewed By | Approved By | Summary |
|-----|------|------------|-------------|-------------|---------|
| 0.9 | 2026-06-05 | jschwefel | — | — | Initial release |
| DRAFT | 2026-06-09 | Claude Code | — | — | Web-sourced fee/fact refresh. §5 revenue-impact table rebased from flat 15% ("85% store") to the corrected blended in-app fee band 15.0%–21.5% — per-$5 net delta corrected $8,401 → ~$7,693–$8,330; pricing conclusion unchanged. §1 competitive map + §2/§6 system check: Hornady 4DOF Free→$4.99, Kestrel 5700 Elite $560→~$700 (widens system-vs-Kestrel gap), AB Quantum freemium detail. Noted 15% Apps Experience tier not available at ~June 30 launch (US rollout ~Sept 30 2026). |
