# ScopeDOPE™ — Revenue Projection Analysis

**Prepared by:** Cold Bore Ballistics™ LLC  
**Date:** 2026-05-31  
**Status:** Internal — Confidential  
**Horizon:** 12 months post-launch (Year 1) + Year 2–3 outlook  
**Purpose:** Operational planning and acquisition positioning

---

## Table of Contents

1. [Model Assumptions](#1-model-assumptions)
2. [Market Sizing](#2-market-sizing)
3. [Unit Economics by Revenue Stream](#3-unit-economics-by-revenue-stream)
4. [Three-Scenario Revenue Projection](#4-three-scenario-revenue-projection)
5. [Monthly Revenue Cadence](#5-monthly-revenue-cadence)
6. [Operating Cost Structure](#6-operating-cost-structure)
7. [Path to Breakeven](#7-path-to-breakeven)
8. [Milestone Inflection Points](#8-milestone-inflection-points)
9. [Year 2–3 Outlook](#9-year-23-outlook)
10. [Acquisition Value Implications](#10-acquisition-value-implications)

---

## 1. Model Assumptions

### 1.1 Product and Pricing

| Parameter | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Launch price (first 90 days) | $29.99 | SCOPEDOPE_PRICE_POINT_ANALYSIS.md |
| Primary price (day 91+) | $44.99 | SCOPEDOPE_PRICE_POINT_ANALYSIS.md |
| App store fee — Apple App Store | 15% | Small Business Program — applies under $1M annual revenue |
| App store fee — Google Play (in-app) | 15%–25% | Apps Experience program 15%; standard 20% service + 5% billing = 25%. Post-Mar-2026 Epic settlement, live June 30, 2026 |
| Blended in-app store fee (65% Android / 35% iOS) | **15.0%–21.5%** | (0.65 × 15%–25%) + (0.35 × 15%) |
| Developer net per launch sale (blended) | $23.54–$25.49 | $29.99 net of 15.0%–21.5% blended fee |
| Developer net per primary sale (blended) | $35.32–$38.24 | $44.99 net of 15.0%–21.5% blended fee |
| Platform split (Android/iOS) | 65% / 35% | Proposed; Android is primary dev platform |

> **Fee correction (2026-06-09):** an earlier version used a blended fee of 8.5%
> derived from "Google 5%." That 5% was Google's *billing-system component only*,
> not the service fee. Post the March 4, 2026 Epic/Google settlement (live
> June 30, 2026), standard Google in-app is ~25% (20% service + 5% billing) and
> the Apps Experience program is 15% — so the realistic blended in-app fee is
> **15.0%–21.5%**, modeled as a band pending CBB's Apps Experience enrollment.
> Apple in-app remains 15% (Small Business Program). The **external-link channel**
> is treated separately in `SCOPEDOPE_EXTERNAL_PURCHASE_STRATEGY.md`.
> ([TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2026/03/04/google-settles-with-epic-games-drops-its-play-store-commissions-to-20/),
> [Google Play Console Help](https://support.google.com/googleplay/android-developer/answer/15582165?hl=en))

### 1.2 Launch Timing

- **Launch window:** Q3–Q4 2026 (targeting v1.0.0 release)
- **Launch pricing window:** 90 days from App Store publication date
- **Year 1 defined as:** 12 calendar months post-launch

### 1.3 Revenue Streams Modeled

Year 1 active streams:
- **App sales** (primary)
- **Branded label roll consumables** (Niimbot-compatible, $9.99)
- **Barrel maker wholesale codes** (Option A: $22.50/code avg)
- **Branded merchandise** (T3 hat, range shirt SS, range shirt LS, quarter-zip, hoodie — all via POD or local run)

Year 1 streams **excluded from model** (not yet built or too early to quantify):
- Cloud sync subscription (post-v1.0)
- Community DOPE exchange credits (target v1.5)
- B2B data licensing (requires install base and Community DOPE Exchange active — modeled in Year 2–3)
- WeatherFlow reseller margin (at ~1,000 installs)
- NRL22 club affiliation bulk licensing (requires sales motion)

### 1.4 General Assumptions

- No paid advertising in Year 1 — growth via community (Sniper's Hide, NRL22 Facebook, Reddit), barrel maker bundles, and match presence
- App store chargebacks and refunds: 2% of gross sales
- Payment processing on consumable/merch sales: 2.9% + $0.30 per transaction (Shopify Payments)
- No inventory carrying cost for merchandise — POD (Printful) at launch; consumable inventory launched at 100-roll tier
- Tax obligations modeled as pre-tax revenue; Wisconsin S-corp or sole-member LLC taxation handled separately

---

## 2. Market Sizing

### 2.1 Total Addressable Market (TAM)

| Segment | Est. Size | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| NRL22 US competitors | 15,000–25,000 | Published NRL22 registration data |
| PRS US competitors | 5,000–10,000 | Serious competition level |
| General long-range US | 200,000–500,000 | Non-competition; lower conversion probability |
| International (CA, AU, UK, EU) | ~30% of US total | Secondary; meaningful but not modeled in Year 1 |

**US TAM (primary competitive sports):** ~27,500 (midpoint NRL22 + PRS)  
**US TAM (including general):** ~375,000

### 2.2 Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM)

SAM = competitors who (a) use a smartphone as a range tool, (b) are willing to pay for a precision app, and (c) have established a DOPE discipline.

| Segment | SAM Rate | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| NRL22 | 60% | ~12,000 |
| PRS | 75% | ~5,600 |
| General long-range | 8% | ~28,000 |
| **Total SAM** | | **~46,000** |

### 2.3 Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) — Year 1

SOM is constrained by launch awareness, community trust-building, and the absence of a paid acquisition budget.

| Scenario | SOM Rate (of SAM) | SOM (installs) |
|---|---|---|
| Modest | 1.1% | 500 |
| Solid | 4.3% | 2,000 |
| Strong | 10.9% | 5,000 |

**Comparable reference point:** Applied Ballistics Mobile and Shooter (by Alloy Software) both achieved meaningful install bases without paid ads, driven entirely by community recommendation on Sniper's Hide and NRL22 Facebook groups. ScopeDOPE's feature differentiation (label printing, DOPE-Blend™, offline) is stronger than either of those at launch. The Solid scenario (2,000 installs) is the base planning case.

---

## 3. Unit Economics by Revenue Stream

### 3.1 App Sales

Blended in-app store fee: **15.0%–21.5%** (65% Android at 15%–25% + 35% iOS at
15%). The band reflects whether CBB enrolls in Google's Apps Experience program
(15%) or pays standard Google in-app (25% = 20% service + 5% billing); see §1.1.

| Price point | Gross/sale | Blended fee (15.0%–21.5%) | Net/sale | Adjusted for 2% refunds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launch ($29.99) | $29.99 | $4.50–$6.45 | $23.54–$25.49 | $23.07–$24.98 |
| Primary ($44.99) | $44.99 | $6.75–$9.67 | $35.32–$38.24 | $34.61–$37.48 |

**Blended net per install** varies by launch-to-primary mix. Assumed mix:
- Modest: 50% at launch price (higher mix; slower primary ramp)
- Solid: 30% at launch, 70% at primary
- Strong: 20% at launch, 80% at primary

| Scenario | Blended net/install (std 25% → Apps Exp 15%) |
|---|---|
| Modest | $29.43 – $31.87 |
| Solid | $31.78 – $34.42 |
| Strong | $32.96 – $35.69 |

> **Note (corrected 2026-06-09):** The three-scenario revenue tables in §4 are
> computed at the **15% (Apps Experience) end of the fee band** — i.e. the
> *best-case* fee, not a conservative one. (An earlier version of this note
> claimed §4 was conservative and "actual revenue will be higher"; that was
> backwards — it rested on the erroneous 8.5% blended fee.) At standard Google
> in-app fees (~25%), Year-1 net is the **low end** of the band: at Solid, app-net
> falls from ~$67.2K (15%) to ~$62.0K (21.5% blended) — about $5.3K lower. Treat
> the §4 figures as the top of the band; the bottom is ~7% lower.

### 3.2 Branded Label Rolls (Consumables)

| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Retail price | $9.99 |
| COGS (100-roll tier) | $2.00 |
| Shopify/payment fee (est.) | $0.59 |
| Net margin/roll | $7.40 |
| Net margin % | 74% |

**Adoption and consumption rate:**
- Assumed 10–20% of app users purchase at least one roll in Year 1
- Average buyer: 2 rolls purchased over 12 months (one DOPE session build-out, one replenishment)

### 3.3 Barrel Maker Wholesale Codes (Option A)

| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Code wholesale price | $22.50 avg (range: $20–25) |
| COGS | $0 |
| Net margin | $22.50 (100%) |

Pricing is based on the primary app price ($44.99). A $22.50 wholesale code represents ~50% of retail — reasonable margin for the barrel maker to offer as a value-add, and genuinely invisible to the customer at Krieger's $300–600+ barrel prices.

**Availability timeline:** Krieger partnership pitched pre-launch; revenue begins at launch if deal closes. Modeled starting Month 2 in Solid/Strong scenarios only.

**Estimated Krieger volume:** ~500 barrels/year shipped; assumed 40% code inclusion rate = ~200 codes/year from Krieger alone. Conservative given ~$300–600+ barrel prices.

### 3.4 Branded Merchandise

**SKU lineup:** Tier 3 hat (Flexfit/Yupoong 6277), range shirt short sleeve (Sport-Tek ST390), range shirt long sleeve (Sport-Tek ST350LS), quarter-zip pullover (Sport-Tek ST851), hoodie premium (ITC IND4000). All apparel via Printful POD at launch; hat via local run (Maple Ave or WSPE, MOQ 24 pcs).

**Blended net margin target:** ~53% across this SKU mix. Lower than a patch/sticker mix because apparel COGS are higher, but average transaction value is ~$44 vs. ~$12 for small accessories — so net dollars per transaction are significantly higher.

Merchandise revenue is a secondary line in Year 1. Primary function is community seeding — a shooter wearing a ScopeDOPE hat at a match is worth more than the 22 margin on the hat. Revenue grows materially at v1.5 when the DOPE exchange credit system makes merchandise the reward mechanism for data submission.

**Per-SKU economics (launch, POD or local run):**

| SKU | Retail | COGS (Printful/local) | Payment fee | Net | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 3 hat (Flexfit, local 48 pcs) | $43.00 | $19.00 | $1.55 | $22.45 | 52% |
| Range shirt SS (ST390, Printful POD) | $34.00 | $13.00 | $1.29 | $19.71 | 58% |
| Range shirt LS (ST350LS, Printful POD) | $43.00 | $16.00 | $1.55 | $25.45 | 59% |
| Quarter-zip pullover (ST851, Printful POD) | $58.00 | $32.00 | $1.98 | $24.02 | 41% |
| Hoodie premium (IND4000, Printful POD) | $72.00 | $37.00 | $2.39 | $32.61 | 45% |

**Assumed unit mix:** SS shirt 35% · LS shirt 20% · Hat 25% · Quarter-zip 12% · Hoodie 8%  
**Blended retail:** $44.00/unit · **Blended net:** $23.10/unit · **Blended margin:** 53%

---

## 4. Three-Scenario Revenue Projection

### Year 1 — 12 Months Post-Launch

#### 4.1 Summary Table

| Revenue Stream | Modest (500 installs) | Solid (2,000 installs) | Strong (5,000 installs) |
|---|---|---|---|
| **App Sales (gross)** | $18,745 | $80,980 | $209,950 |
| App store fees (15%) | ($2,812) | ($12,147) | ($31,493) |
| Refunds (2%) | ($375) | ($1,620) | ($4,199) |
| **App Sales (net)** | **$15,558** | **$67,213** | **$174,258** |
| | | | |
| **Label Rolls (gross)** | $998 | $5,994 | $19,980 |
| COGS + fees | ($298) | ($1,798) | ($5,990) |
| **Label Rolls (net)** | **$700** | **$4,196** | **$13,990** |
| | | | |
| **Barrel Codes (gross)** | $0 | $4,500 | $11,250 |
| **Barrel Codes (net)** | **$0** | **$4,500** | **$11,250** |
| | | | |
| **Merchandise (gross)** | $660 | $3,520 | $9,680 |
| COGS + fees | ($313) | ($1,672) | ($4,598) |
| **Merchandise (net)** | **$347** | **$1,848** | **$5,082** |
| | | | |
| **TOTAL GROSS REVENUE** | **$20,403** | **$94,994** | **$250,860** |
| **TOTAL NET REVENUE** | **$16,605** | **$77,757** | **$204,580** |

#### 4.2 Assumptions Behind Each Scenario

**Modest (500 installs)**
- App sales drive essentially all revenue
- No barrel maker deal closes in Year 1
- Label roll buyers: ~50 (10% of installs), avg 2 rolls each = 100 rolls sold
- Merchandise: ~15 units total; hat + shirts via POD; no quarter-zip or hoodie run at this volume
- Growth driver: organic App Store discovery + Sniper's Hide post at launch

**Solid (2,000 installs) — Base Planning Case**
- Barrel maker deal (Krieger) closes; 200 codes shipped in Year 1
- Label roll buyers: ~300 (15% of installs), avg 2 rolls each = 600 rolls sold
- Merchandise: ~80 units across all 5 SKUs; hat at local run (24 pcs); shirts, quarter-zip, hoodie via Printful POD
- Growth drivers: Krieger partnership, 2–3 match sponsorships, community traction on Sniper's Hide, Arken Optics community engagement

**Strong (5,000 installs)**
- Krieger deal plus Brux deal (~500 combined codes/year)
- Label roll buyers: ~1,000 (20% of installs), avg 2 rolls = 2,000 rolls
- Merchandise: ~220 units across all 5 SKUs; hat at local run (48 pcs); full apparel line via Printful POD
- Growth drivers: viral spread at NRL22 matches via visible printed labels, optics partnership (Apex or Arken at ~500 installs), barrel maker bundles at scale

---

## 5. Monthly Revenue Cadence

### 5.1 App Install Distribution

App revenue front-loads at launch, then levels to a monthly run rate. The precision rifle community is small and moves fast — an NRL22 match mention can drive 50–200 downloads in a weekend.

**Modest scenario — monthly install estimate:**
| Period | Monthly installs | Pricing mix | Monthly app net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Month 1–2 (launch burst) | 120 | 80% launch price | $3,297 |
| Month 3 (launch pricing closes) | 40 | 40% launch price | $1,300 |
| Month 4–12 (steady state) | 27 avg | 100% primary | $1,012/mo |
| **12-month total** | **503** | — | **~$17,000** |

**Solid scenario — monthly install estimate:**
| Period | Monthly installs | Pricing mix | Monthly app net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Month 1–2 (launch burst) | 400 | 80% launch price | $10,988 |
| Month 3 | 150 | 40% launch price | $4,871 |
| Month 4–12 (steady state) | 150 avg | 100% primary | $5,621/mo |
| **12-month total** | **2,200** | — | **~$77,000** |

**Strong scenario — monthly install estimate:**
| Period | Monthly installs | Pricing mix | Monthly app net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Month 1–2 (launch burst) | 900 | 80% launch price | $24,724 |
| Month 3 | 350 | 40% launch price | $11,367 |
| Month 4–12 (steady state) | 380 avg | 100% primary | $14,242/mo |
| **12-month total** | **5,670** | — | **~$189,000** |

### 5.2 Revenue Recognition Note

App sales are recognized at time of purchase (one-time). Label rolls and merchandise are physical goods — revenue recognized at shipment. Barrel codes are recognized at delivery to the barrel maker.

---

## 6. Operating Cost Structure

### 6.1 Fixed Annual Costs (recurring)

| Item | Annual Cost | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Apple Developer Program | $99 | Required for iOS distribution |
| WI DFI Annual Report | $25 | LLC maintenance |
| Microsoft 365 Business Standard | $150 | Email, OneDrive |
| Zoho Books | $0 → $240 | Free under $50K; $20/mo above |
| Domain renewals (~6 active) | $90 | All defensive registrations |
| Shopify Basic (web store) | $468 | $39/mo; required for consumables + merch |
| **Total fixed annual** | **~$832–$1,072** | |

### 6.2 Pre-Launch One-Time Costs (already planned)

| Item | Cost |
|---|---|
| WI DFI LLC formation | $130 |
| USPTO trademark × 3 word marks | $1,050 |
| Copyright registrations × 3 | $195 |
| Google Play Console | $25 |
| Domain registrations (initial) | $45 |
| **Total pre-launch** | **$1,445** |

### 6.3 Optional/Milestone Costs

| Item | Cost | Trigger |
|---|---|---|
| Consumable label roll inventory (100 rolls) | ~$200 | Pre-launch |
| USPTO design mark filings × 2 | $700 | ~500 installs |
| Patent attorney consultation | $500–$1,500 | ~5,000 installs |
| Patent filing — printing workflow | $15,000–$30,000 | ~5,000 installs |
| Niimbot B21 Pro private label MOQ (est.) | $15,000–$40,000 | ~3,000 installs |

### 6.4 COGS Summary

| Revenue stream | Year 1 COGS (Modest) | Year 1 COGS (Solid) | Year 1 COGS (Strong) |
|---|---|---|---|
| App sales | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Label rolls | $200 | $1,200 | $4,000 |
| Barrel codes | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Merchandise | $313 | $1,672 | $4,598 |
| **Total COGS** | **$513** | **$2,872** | **$8,598** |

> **Corrected 2026-06-09:** the total row previously read $530 / $2,608 / $7,740,
> which did not equal the sum of the component rows above. Totals now foot to
> their components. Note the merchandise row carries COGS **+ payment fees** (as
> in §4), while the label row is COGS-only; the total is therefore a
> COGS-plus-merch-fees figure, retained as-is for consistency with §4.

App sales have **zero COGS** — the ballistic engine, UI, and all code are sunk
cost. Every incremental sale is nearly pure margin (net of the blended store fee,
§1.1).

---

## 7. Path to Breakeven

### 7.1 Breakeven Definition

**Operational breakeven** = net revenue sufficient to cover annual fixed costs and recover pre-launch one-time investment within 12 months.

Total Year 1 cost to recover: ~$1,445 (pre-launch) + ~$950 (Year 1 fixed) = **~$2,395**

| Scenario | Year 1 Net Revenue | Year 1 Costs | Net Profit (Loss) | Breakeven Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modest | $16,605 | $2,395 | **+$14,210** | Month 1 |
| Solid | $77,757 | $2,395 | **+$75,362** | Month 1 |
| Strong | $204,580 | $2,395 | **+$202,185** | Month 1 |

**All three scenarios are cash-flow positive in Month 1** with a modest launch burst. The capital requirements for ScopeDOPE are so low (no hardware, no fulfillment infrastructure required) that breakeven is structurally immediate upon any meaningful app sales.

### 7.2 Consumable Inventory Breakeven

If 100 rolls of branded label stock are purchased pre-launch (~$200 COGS):
- Revenue per roll: $9.69 (net of payment fees)
- Net per roll: $7.69
- Rolls to recover investment: 26 rolls
- At 10% adoption of 500 installs = 50 buyers × 2 rolls = 100 rolls → **immediate recovery on first order cycle**

### 7.3 Zoho Books Upgrade Trigger

Zoho Books upgrades from free to $20/month at $50,000 annual revenue. The Solid scenario crosses this threshold. Net impact: $240/year additional cost, negligible.

---

## 8. Milestone Inflection Points

These are the install thresholds where materially new revenue streams or business opportunities unlock, based on the startup guide and strategic opportunity analysis.

| Install milestone | What it unlocks | Revenue impact |
|---|---|---|
| **Launch (Day 1)** | App sales begin; consumable label rolls go live; first barrel maker codes | Year 1 base revenues (as modeled above) |
| **~500 installs** | Apex Optics partnership inquiry; design mark filings justified; Bartlein Barrels pitch with Krieger as social proof | Distribution into Apex's Nemesis/Rival user base → +100–300 installs |
| **~1,000 installs** | WeatherFlow reseller partnership; Criterion Barrels volume; Tract and Element optics pitches; ELEY outreach | Referral commissions on WeatherFlow sensor sales (~$10–$20/sale); expanded barrel code volume |
| **~2,000–3,000 installs** | Niimbot B21 Pro private label inquiry; Athlon Optics community outreach; ZCO pitch | Potential branded printer margin ($10–$30/unit) on a higher-ASP product |
| **~5,000 installs** | Patent filing (printing workflow, $15K–$30K); Kahles partnership; WeatherFlow private label discussion; acquisition positioning becomes credible | Patent filing = significant IP asset; Kahles = premium PRS pipeline |
| **~5,000–10,000 installs** | Community DOPE exchange active; B2B data licensing first conversations — barrel maker partners first, then ammo/bullet manufacturers | First data license ($10K–$35K/yr) is pure margin; dataset density determines which calibers/loads are licensable first |
| **~20,000 installs** | Full acquisition readiness; private label printer commit; Niimbot and WeatherFlow bundles at volume | Bundle revenue stream; multiple revenue lines established |

---

## 9. Year 2–3 Outlook

Year 2 and 3 projections assume continued organic growth plus the revenue streams unlocked by Year 1 install milestones. Ranges reflect carry-through from the Modest/Solid/Strong Year 1 scenarios.

### 9.1 New Revenue Streams Entering Year 2

**Cloud Sync Subscription (optional add-on, $2.99/month or $24.99/year)**
- Target launch: v1.1 or v1.5
- Adoption rate assumption: 10–15% of total install base
- At 2,000 installs × 12%: 240 subscribers × $25/year = $6,000 ARR
- At 5,000 installs × 12%: 600 subscribers × $25/year = $15,000 ARR
- At 20,000 installs × 12%: 2,400 subscribers × $25/year = $60,000 ARR

**WeatherFlow Reseller Margin (~1,000 install)**
- Assume 5% of new installs in Year 2 purchase via CBB referral link
- Commission estimated at $10–$20/sensor (10–20% of $99.95 MSRP)
- At Solid pace (1,500 new installs/year): 75 referral sales × $15 = $1,125/year
- Scales linearly with new installs; small but pure margin

**Community DOPE Exchange Credits / Merch (~5,000 installs)**
- Merch revenue grows significantly once the exchange program creates non-cash incentive to participate
- CBB's cost basis for merchandise redeemed via credits = COGS only (no cash transaction)
- Revenue realized when users purchase beyond their credit balance

**B2B Data Licensing (~5,000 installs + Community DOPE Exchange active)**

The aggregated, anonymized DOPE dataset is a proprietary asset with no competitor equivalent — real-world confirmed bullet performance across loads, calibers, distances, and field conditions. Potential licensees: ammunition manufacturers (Federal, Hornady, Sierra, ELEY, SK, Lapua), barrel makers (Krieger, Bartlein), and bullet manufacturers who want real-world performance data on their products that Doppler radar and controlled test conditions cannot provide.

This revenue stream requires two preconditions: (1) the Community DOPE Exchange is live and accumulating quality-validated submissions, and (2) the dataset has sufficient density per caliber/load to be statistically meaningful to a manufacturer. Neither condition is likely to be met before late Year 2 at the earliest.

Licensing structure (proposed):

| Tier | Access | Annual price |
|---|---|---|
| Basic | Aggregate summary statistics by caliber/load/conditions | $10K–$15K |
| Standard | Segmented dataset — full field breakdown by caliber, ammo lot, distance, environment | $20K–$35K |
| Premium | Anonymized raw dataset + API access for integration into internal tools | $40K–$75K |

This is pure margin — no COGS, no platform fees, no inventory. A single Standard-tier licensee covers a substantial portion of CBB's annual operating costs.

**Realistic licensee count:** 1–3 in Year 3; 3–8 by Year 5 if the dataset is growing. Initial conversations likely with barrel maker partners already in the relationship (Krieger, Bartlein) before outreach to ammo manufacturers.

### 9.2 Year 2–3 Revenue Table (Annualized Estimates)

These assume Year 1 install totals carry into Year 2 with 50–80% of Year 1 new install velocity.

| Revenue Stream | Year 2 Low (Modest track) | Year 2 Mid (Solid track) | Year 2 High (Strong track) |
|---|---|---|---|
| New app installs (Year 2) | 250 × $37.47 = **$9,368** | 1,200 × $37.47 = **$44,964** | 3,000 × $37.47 = **$112,410** |
| Label rolls (growing base) | 75 rolls × $7.40 = **$555** | 800 rolls × $7.40 = **$5,920** | 2,500 rolls × $7.40 = **$18,500** |
| Barrel codes | **$0** | 300 codes × $22.50 = **$6,750** | 600 codes × $22.50 = **$13,500** |
| Cloud sync subscription | 80 × $25 = **$2,000** | 350 × $25 = **$8,750** | 900 × $25 = **$22,500** |
| Merchandise (retail) | **$1,500** | **$6,000** | **$15,000** |
| WeatherFlow referrals | **$0** | **$1,125** | **$2,250** |
| B2B data licensing | **$0** | **$0** | **$10,000** |
| **Year 2 Total Net Revenue** | **~$13,423** | **~$73,509** | **~$194,160** |

| Revenue Stream | Year 3 Low | Year 3 Mid | Year 3 High |
|---|---|---|---|
| New app installs | 150 × $37.47 = **$5,621** | 900 × $37.47 = **$33,723** | 2,500 × $37.47 = **$93,675** |
| Label rolls | **$700** | **$8,880** | **$29,600** |
| Barrel codes + new partnerships | **$0** | **$9,000** | **$22,500** |
| Cloud sync (growing base) | 100 × $25 = **$2,500** | 600 × $25 = **$15,000** | 1,800 × $25 = **$45,000** |
| Merch (DOPE exchange active) | **$2,500** | **$10,000** | **$30,000** |
| WeatherFlow / optics referrals | **$0** | **$2,250** | **$5,000** |
| B2B data licensing | **$0** | **$15,000** | **$45,000** |
| **Year 3 Total Net Revenue** | **~$11,321** | **~$93,853** | **~$270,775** |

### 9.3 Three-Year Cumulative Net Revenue

| Scenario | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modest | $16,605 | $13,423 | $11,321 | **$41,349** |
| Solid | $77,757 | $73,509 | $93,853 | **$245,119** |
| Strong | $204,580 | $194,160 | $270,775 | **$669,515** |

---

## 10. Acquisition Value Implications

This section is a bridge to `SCOPEDOPE_VALUATION_BRIEF.md`. Revenue data informs acquisition positioning.

### 10.1 Revenue Multiple Framework

Not all revenue is valued equally in an acquisition. ScopeDOPE has three structurally different revenue types that each attract a different multiple:

| Revenue type | Examples | Typical acquisition multiple |
|---|---|---|
| One-time software / consumables | App sales, label rolls, barrel codes, merch | 3–6× annual revenue |
| Recurring subscription (SaaS) | Cloud sync at $25/year | 8–15× ARR |
| B2B data licensing | DOPE dataset licenses to manufacturers | 10–20× ARR |

The blended multiple on the whole business is determined by the mix. A business with any recurring or data licensing revenue is not valued like a pure one-time app — the multiple applied to the entire company rises when ARR exists, even if ARR is a minority of total revenue.

**Year 1 revenue-only baseline** (no recurring or licensing revenue yet):

| Scenario | Year 1 Net Revenue | Revenue multiple (4×) | Revenue multiple (6×) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Modest | $16,605 | $66,420 | $99,630 |
| Solid | $77,757 | $311,028 | $466,542 |
| Strong | $204,580 | $818,320 | $1,227,480 |

These are floors. The Year 1 number is not the basis a strategic acquirer uses — they value on run rate and trajectory.

### 10.2 When Acquisition Becomes a Credible Conversation

| Stage | Install count | Credibility basis |
|---|---|---|
| Licensing / partnership candidate | 500–1,000 | Demonstrated community traction; specific feature IP |
| Earnout-style acquisition | 2,000–5,000 | Proven revenue; meaningful install base; first partnership (Krieger) |
| Straightforward acquisition negotiation | 5,000–10,000 | Recurring consumable revenue; subscription layer; patent filed |
| Premium acquisition (strategic moat) | 10,000–20,000 | DOPE database with proven B2B licensee(s); multiple manufacturer relationships; .dope adoption |

### 10.3 The Recurring Revenue Premium — Subscription + Data Licensing Combined

**Subscription only (cloud sync), at 10,000 installs:**
- 12% adoption = 1,200 subscribers × $25/year = **$30,000 ARR**
- At 12× SaaS multiple: **$360,000** attributable to subscription

**Data licensing only, at first B2B licensee (Year 3, Solid track):**
- 1 Standard-tier licensee at $20,000/year = **$20,000 ARR**
- At 15× data multiple: **$300,000** attributable to licensing
- This assumes a single barrel maker or ammo manufacturer paying for access to the aggregated dataset

**The combination at Solid Year 3 (~10,000 cumulative installs):**

| Revenue component | Annual run rate | Multiple | Attributed value |
|---|---|---|---|
| App installs (new, ongoing) | ~$31,000 | 4× | $124,000 |
| Consumables + barrel codes | ~$18,000 | 3× | $54,000 |
| Cloud sync subscription | ~$15,000 ARR | 12× | $180,000 |
| B2B data licensing | ~$15,000 ARR | 15× | $225,000 |
| **Revenue-based total** | | | **~$583,000** |
| IP premium (printing, DOPE-Blend, .dope) | — | strategic | deal-specific |
| **Estimated acquisition range** | | | **$750K–$2M** |

**At Strong Year 3 (~15,000+ cumulative installs, 2–3 data licensees):**

| Revenue component | Annual run rate | Multiple | Attributed value |
|---|---|---|---|
| App installs (new, ongoing) | ~$85,000 | 4× | $340,000 |
| Consumables + barrel codes | ~$53,000 | 3× | $159,000 |
| Cloud sync subscription | ~$45,000 ARR | 12× | $540,000 |
| B2B data licensing | ~$45,000 ARR | 15× | $675,000 |
| **Revenue-based total** | | | **~$1,714,000** |
| IP premium | — | strategic | deal-specific |
| **Estimated acquisition range** | | | **$2M–$6M** |

### 10.4 Why the Data Licensing Multiple Is the Highest

B2B data licensing commands the highest multiple for three reasons that are specific to ScopeDOPE's situation:

1. **The dataset cannot be replicated.** Applied Ballistics (Litz) has a BC library built from controlled Doppler radar measurements. ScopeDOPE's DOPE dataset is real-world field-confirmed impacts from competition shooters across actual environmental conditions. These are not competing datasets — they are different things. A manufacturer who wants both must acquire CBB to get the community data.

2. **The dataset compounds with the install base.** Unlike app revenue (which is linear with installs), the dataset grows in value nonlinearly — more users → more data → higher density per caliber/load → more licensees willing to pay more. A 50,000-entry dataset at 20,000 installs is worth more per entry than a 5,000-entry dataset.

3. **One signed B2B licensee proves commercial value, which re-rates the entire business.** The moment a Federal, Hornady, or ELEY signs even a Basic-tier license, ScopeDOPE stops being valued as a precision rifle app and starts being valued as a ballistic data company that also has an app. That distinction matters to acquirers.

### 10.5 Revenue Milestone Summary (Decision Gates)

| Milestone | Threshold | Action implied |
|---|---|---|
| Operational sustainability | Year 1 net > $5,000 | All three scenarios exceed this — ScopeDOPE is self-funding from day one |
| Zoho Books upgrade | $50,000 cumulative | Solid scenario hits by Year 1 end |
| Trademark maintenance justified | Revenue > 0 | File before launch regardless |
| Patent filing (printing workflow) | Year 1 net > $25,000 or 5K installs | Solid scenario at Year 1 crosses both thresholds |
| Acquisition positioning begins | 5,000 installs | Strong scenario Year 1; Solid scenario Year 2 |
| Subscription layer launch | 2,000–3,000 installs | Solid scenario Year 1 end; changes blended valuation multiple |
| First B2B data license conversation | Exchange active + 5K installs | Begin with barrel maker partners already in the relationship |
| First signed data license | Year 3, Solid or Strong track | Re-rates business from app company to data company; single largest valuation step-change |

---

## Appendix A — Sensitivity Analysis

### A.1 Price Sensitivity

Impact of a $5 price change on Solid scenario (2,000 installs):

| Price point | Gross | Net (85%) | Delta vs. $44.99 base |
|---|---|---|---|
| $34.99 | $69,980 | $59,483 | −$17,000 |
| $39.99 | $79,980 | $67,983 | −$8,500 |
| **$44.99 (base)** | **$89,980** | **$76,483** | — |
| $49.99 | $99,980 | $84,983 | +$8,500 |

At 2,000 installs, each $5 increase in primary price adds ~$8,500 net revenue. Price elasticity in this demographic is low — the audience is accustomed to paying $560 for a Kestrel. **$44.99 is the recommended primary price.** Consider testing $49.99 post-launch to measure conversion impact once community proof is established.

### A.2 Barrel Code Partnership Sensitivity

Impact of barrel maker volume on Solid scenario:

| Codes shipped (Year 1) | Gross | Net |
|---|---|---|
| 0 (no deal) | $0 | $0 |
| 100 (Krieger, conservative) | $2,250 | $2,250 |
| 200 (Krieger, base case) | $4,500 | $4,500 |
| 400 (Krieger + Brux) | $9,000 | $9,000 |
| 800 (Krieger + Brux + Bartlein) | $18,000 | $18,000 |

The barrel maker channel has 100% margin and grows without additional customer acquisition effort once the commercial terms are established. Krieger + Brux at Year 1 adds ~$5,000 to the Solid scenario.

### A.3 Consumable Adoption Sensitivity

| Adoption rate | Buyers (Solid, 2K installs) | Rolls/year | Net revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% | 100 | 200 | $1,480 |
| 10% | 200 | 400 | $2,960 |
| **15% (base)** | **300** | **600** | **$4,196** |
| 20% | 400 | 800 | $5,920 |
| 30% | 600 | 1,200 | $8,880 |

---

## Appendix B — Key Risks

| Risk | Probability | Revenue impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| App Store rejection or delay | Low — no subscription, no accounts, no controversial content | Delays Year 1 revenue | Submit both stores simultaneously; maintain buffer |
| WeatherFlow Tactical hardware shortage or price increase | Medium | Reduces system bundle appeal | Not CBB's problem directly; sensor is optional |
| Niimbot B21 Pro UUID not reversible before launch | Medium (GH #1 open) | Limits printing feature to B1 only — smaller installed base | Prioritize GH #1; B1 is sufficient for launch |
| Barrel maker deal doesn't close before launch | Medium | Modest scenario applies; ~$2,500 revenue gap vs. Solid | Model accounts for this; consumable launch requires no partner |
| Community backlash or initial bug reports | Low-medium | Slows organic growth; no refund risk at scale | Launch in beta to NRL22 club; iterate before wide release |
| Kestrel or Applied Ballistics releases competing DOPE-Blend feature | Low (architectural difficulty) | Compresses differentiation window | DOPE-Blend is novel; methodology protection in place; speed matters |
| Price competition from free apps | Low — free apps do not do what ScopeDOPE does | Price pressure at margins | Maintain "Ballistic Computer" positioning; never discount below $29.99 |

---

*End of document. This projection is a planning tool, not a financial guarantee. Revise quarterly as actual install data becomes available.*

*Confidential — Cold Bore Ballistics LLC — Do not distribute without NDA*

---

## Document Control

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| **Document owner** | `jschwefel@coldboreballisticsllc.com` |
| **Classification** | Confidential (03_-_Confidential/) |
| **Location** | `OneDrive/CBB_Corporate/03_-_Confidential/Financial_Records/SCOPEDOPE_REVENUE_PROJECTION.md` |
| **Cross-references** | `SCOPEDOPE_PRICE_POINT_ANALYSIS.md`; `SCOPEDOPE_VALUATION_ANALYSIS.md`; `SCOPEDOPE_EXTERNAL_PURCHASE_STRATEGY.md` |
| **Created** | 2026-06-05 |
| **Last updated** | 2026-06-09 |
| **Next full review due** | 2027-06-05 |

---

## Revision Control Block

| Rev | Date | Changed By | Reviewed By | Approved By | Summary |
|-----|------|------------|-------------|-------------|---------|
| 0.9 | 2026-06-05 | jschwefel | — | — | Initial release |
| DRAFT | 2026-06-09 | Claude (Opus 4.8) | — | — | Fixed "DOPE-blend"→"DOPE-Blend™" per BRAND_LEGAL_LANGUAGE_GUIDE; applied ™ to first use of ScopeDOPE/Cold Bore Ballistics. |
| DRAFT | 2026-06-09 | Claude Code | — | — | Fee correction: blended in-app fee 8.5%→**15.0%–21.5%** band (§1.1, §3.1) — old "Google 5%" was the billing component, not the service fee (post-Mar-2026 Epic settlement: Google in-app 15% Apps Experience to 25% standard). Net-per-sale and net-per-install rebased to bands. Replaced the backwards §3.1 "§4 is conservative" note. Fixed §6.4 COGS total row (did not sum its components: $530/$2,608/$7,740 → $513/$2,872/$8,598). §4 tables now documented as the 15% top-of-band. |
